In an analysis, climate scientists with the UK’s Met Office found that the natural probability of a heatwave exceeding average temperatures from 2010 would be once in 312 years, but when climate change is factored in, the chances increase to once in every 3.1 years.

The analysis also made projections, showing the frequency of such heatwaves in the region would increase to increase to once every 1.15 years by the end of the century.

“Spells of heat have always been a feature of the region’s pre-monsoon climate during April and May. However, our study shows that climate change is driving the heat intensity of these spells making record-breaking temperatures 100 times more likely,” said the Met Office’s Nikos Christidis, who produced the analysis. “By the end of the century increasing climate change is likely to drive temperatures of these values on average every year.”

India and Pakistan are highly vulnerable to the impacts of the climate crisis, particularly in terms of extreme heat.

The scientists said that a new temperature record was likely to have been reached in the region during the recent heatwave.

Temperatures in the sub-continent have eased slightly in recent days, but the respite is likely to be short-lived, according to Paul Hutcheon, of the Met Office’s Global Guidance Unit.

“The heat looks likely to build again from mid-week, peaking later in the week or into the weekend, with maximum temperatures again likely to reach 50°C in some spots, with continued very high overnight temperatures,” he said on the Met Office’s website.

“Through the weekend temperatures are likely to lower again closer to average. There is also a continued enhanced risk of fires (largely from planned agricultural burning) in the region which would further add to the poor air quality. Some strong winds will lift dust plumes at times too.”