Coronavirus Briefing Newsletter

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India’s health ministry Wednesday confirmed 42,625 new cases and 562 fatalities, taking the total to 31,769,132 cases (410,353 active cases) and 425,757 fatalities. Worldwide: Over 199.52 million cases and 4.25 million fatalities. Vaccination in India: 485,286,570 doses. Worldwide: Over 4.15 billion doses

TODAY’S TAKE
Will we ever know the real Covid toll?

Asserting that it was “irrational, displaced and unscientific” to calculate mortality figures based on high sero-positiivity rates, Niti Aayog member V K Paul said that sero survey were conducted only to determine how many people have had exposure to Covid-19 through the presence of antibodies in them. Adding that sero surveys include a “large number of asymptomatic people”, Paul also alluded to the fact that a significant number of people testing positive for antibodies were those who had been vaccinated. Paul’s remarks on extrapolating high seropositivity figures with high mortality rates comes amidst concerns in the government over rising R-rate or the reproduction rate that measures the spread of infection and has gone over one, which indicates a rise in the number of active cases. In fact, the actual number of deaths due to Covid-19, especially that occurred in the second wave, may never be known, according to Pronab Sen, Chairman, Standing Committee on Economic Statistics, and ex-Chief Statistician of India. According to a report in the Indian Express, Sen said that “to go back and identify who amongst those who died during the pandemic period was due to Covid if not already tested or officially counted as Covid death by the state is, in practical terms, impossible.” The best that the country could do, he says, is to devise models “based on pilot studies, study of symptoms, and surveys of next of kin to get an estimate.” Dr Tushar Gore, a pharmaceuticals expert, and Viral Acharya, the former RBI Deputy Governor, used hospital-bed estimates to estimate an undercount range of 3x-9x. Arvind Subramanian, the former Chief Economic Advisor, Justin Sandefur, who is with the Center for Global Development and Kennedy School’s Abhishek Anand, estimated deaths in the second wave in the 1.4 million (approx 6x) to 2.4 million (10x) range, says the report. That could, however, lead to other complications as the Centre needs to inform the Supreme Court by August 14 on how it plans to pay compensation to the next of kin of those who died due to Covid-19 . Several estimates have suggested that India’s official fatality count during the second wave of Covid-19, pegged at 1.69 lakh, may be vastly underreported and represents a massive undercounting — with total deaths since last year due to the pandemic in India pegged at close to 7 lakh by some estimates, based on the total collapse of the healthcare infrastructure and the queues seen for funerals at crematoria and burial grounds.

TELL ME ONE THING
Long Covid uncommon in children

Children who become ill with coronavirus are unlikely to have long-term effects, with less than 2% having symptoms lasting more than eight weeks, research has shown. Illness from Covid-19 lasted no more than a week on average in people aged between five and 17, according to findings from a study led by researchers at King’s College London. The results involved scientists looking at daily health reports logged in an app and focussed on September 2020 through to February 2021. Of the 1,734 children reported by parents or carers with a clear start and end point to their symptoms and a positive RT-PCR test result, just one in 50 (1.8%) had symptoms lasting more than eight weeks. Fewer than one in 20 (4.4%) experienced symptoms for four weeks or more. In children aged five to 11 years old, the illness lasted on average for five days, while in children aged 12 to 17 it lasted around seven days, researchers said. The study showed that the most common symptoms reported in children were headaches, tiredness, a sore throat and loss of smell. Scientists said it was reassuring that there were no reports of serious neurological symptoms such as fits or seizures, impaired concentration or anxiety.