Here are the 4 big things we're watching in a busy week ahead for the stock market
HS 27/07/2025
Buckle up. It’s a jam-packed week ahead, with a host of influential companies set to report alongside a Federal Reserve meeting — and, if that wasn’t enough, there’s fresh inflation and jobs data, too. On top of all that, we will be digesting the latest trade headlines ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline set by the Trump administration. In particular, what the European Union deal, which was announced on Sunday , means for the market. Also this week, U.S. and Chinese officials are set to meet in Sweden for another round of trade talks. Last week, the U.S. trade deal with Japan helped push the S & P 500 to record highs. Now, here’s a closer look at what to expect in the week ahead from the Fed, the week’s economic data releases and Club earnings. 1. Fed: Despite President Donald Trump ‘s pressure campaign, the central bank on Wednesday afternoon is widely expected to keep its benchmark overnight lending rate steady in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool . Instead, the question on investors’ minds is whether a cut at the Fed’s September meeting is on the table, so they’ll be listening for whether Chairman Jerome Powell lays the groundwork for that during his typical post-meeting press conference. We don’t expect Powell to change his tune about the Fed’s data-dependency in making policy decisions, even in the face of Trump’s criticism. On that note, we want to hear how Powell characterizes the resiliency seen in the labor market — initial jobless claims have dropped for six straight weeks, for example — and the inflation trends. While Trump’s tariffs haven’t yet led to a dramatic upturn in inflation, recent reports are showing a slight uptick , and there’s a belief that U.S. companies absorbing the tariffs can only do so for so long before needing to raise prices. As of Saturday, the market put 62% odds on a quarter-point cut in September. Before the Fed’s decision Wednesday, we’ll get the first reading of second-quarter gross domestic product, which could be discussed during Powell’s press conference. 2. Inflation: After the Fed’s meeting concludes, tariff effects will stay in the spotlight thanks to the release of the June personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index on Thursday morning. This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, despite the consumer price index (CPI) garnering more attention. There are some differences in the way the two gauges are calculated — particularly on housing and health-care inputs — but what stays the same is that investors are looking for tariff-related signs of inflation. For example, in the June CPI report tariff-sensitive categories like furniture and apparel showed outsized increases. For the PCE, economists polled by Dow Jones expect a 0.3% month-over-month increase and an annual rate of 2.5%. On a core basis, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, the Dow Jones consensus is for a 0.3% monthly gain and 2.7% annual increase. 3. Jobs, jobs, jobs: The big labor market event of the week is Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for the month of July, offering Wall Street a look at the pace of hiring in the face of trade policy uncertainty. As mentioned earlier, the U.S. labor market has continued to defy expectations for a material slowdown. For July, the consensus is that the U.S. economy added 102,000 jobs and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% in June, according to Dow Jones. Revisions to the prior months reports are something to watch. Ahead of Friday’s release, we’ll get the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday. The so-called JOLTS measures the amount of slack in the labor market, carrying implications for wage inflation. On Wednesday, payroll processing firm ADP releases its monthly look at private hiring — but, as we once again saw with the June data, it’s not predictive of what the official government report will say. Thursday morning will bring the latest batch of first-time filings for unemployment insurance, known as initial jobless claims. Will it be seven weeks in a row of declines? One area of weakness in recent jobs data has been continuing claims, which suggests that while layoffs are going in the right direction, it’s taking people time to get rehired. 4. Earnings: There are seven Club names reporting in the week ahead. All revenue and sales estimates provided below are courtesy of LSEG. Starbucks kicks off the action Tuesday night, and investors will be searching for additional signs of progress in CEO Brian Niccol’s revitalization efforts. In its mostly disappointing April earnings report, Niccol had good things to say about the roughly 700 stores where it was piloting staffing and deployment changes. We hope that continued, with the benefits spreading to more cafes across the country. The FactSet consensus is for Starbucks to report its sixth straight quarter of same-store sales declines, at minus 1.3%. While necessary to turn the business around, Niccol’s investments aren’t cheap, so we don’t expect strong profitability metrics this quarter, either. We do, however, hope that management is mindful that telling investors that earnings per share isn’t a great metric to judge the turnaround may not go over well. Analysts expect total revenue of $9.31 billion and earnings per share of 65 cents. Meta Platforms reports after the close Wednesday. An expensive question on investors’ minds: How much has Meta’s spending spree on artificial intelligence talent cost so far? In April, the Instagram parent lowered its total expense guidance to $113 billion to $118 billion, down $1 billion on both ends of the range. Will that need to be revised higher? Similarly, will Meta’s capital expenditures guidance of $64 billion to $72 billion be adjusted to account for higher spending on AI chips and data centers? The continued strength of Meta’s social media ad business — and how that’s driven earnings-per-share growth — has quelled concerns about aggressive AI spending. This time around, the market is looking for Family of Apps revenue to increase 14.8% on annual basis, according to FactSet. Total revenues are expected to be $43.84 alongside EPS of $5.91. Joining Meta on Wednesday night is fellow tech giant Microsoft , which is reporting its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter results. The most important line item is the growth of the cloud-computing business Azure, and the AI services contributions to that expansion. Last quarter, Azure grew a better-than-expected 35% on a constant-currency basis, with AI being responsible for 16 points of growth. For the June period, the FactSet consensus for Azure is growth of 34.9% (there’s no estimate for AI, specifically). Overall, analysts expect Microsoft to report earnings per share of $3.37 on revenue of $73.81 billion. Microsoft’s capex commentary for its fiscal 2026 will also be note of note, carrying implications for leading AI chipmaker Nvidia and the likes of industrials such as Eaton, which supplies electrical equipment for data centers. The current consensus is for capex of $73.9 billion in fiscal 2026, according to FactSet. We’ll also listen for any updates on the contract renegotiations with frenemy OpenAI, which is seeking greater independence from its early benefactor. Bristol Myers Squibb will report results on Thursday before the open. Sales of Cobenfy, the company’s new schizophrenia treatment, will be a key watch item for investors. We’re also interested to hear about other potential indications for Cobenfy, such as its use in the treatment of Alzheimer’s psychosis, with late-stage trial data expected later this year. The initial response that Bristol Myers is seeing to its recently announced plan to sell blood-thinning medication Eliquis directly to patients through its Eliquis 360 support program will also be something to watch out for during the conference call. Analysts may also ask about Cristian Massacesi joining as its new chief medical officer. The Street is looking for earnings of $1.07 per share on revenue of $11.38 billion. Apple joins the parade of tech earnings after the bell Thursday. After the March quarter saw a “pull-forward” in iPhone sales as consumers rushed to beat fears of tariff-driven price hikes, there’s a belief that the final two quarters of Apple’s September-ended fiscal year will be softer than before. For the three months ended in June, the FactSet consensus is for iPhone sales of $40 billion. A few more questions: Will Apple’s high-margin Services business get back on track after a light miss in the March quarter? Did the estimated $900 million tariff impact for the June quarter materialize, and can management shed any more light on its supply chain and artificial intelligence strategies going forward? There’s no question Apple has been a frustrating stock this year, but as long as the iPhone remains the best consumer hardware device on the market, there’s time to turn it around. Analysts expect total revenue of $89.33 billion and earnings per share of $1.43. Amazon will also report after the bell on Thursday. Revenue growth and profitability at cloud unit Amazon Web Services remains the key metric for investors to watch. On the retail side, we’re also interested in more details on how Amazon is leveraging AI and automation in its warehouses and throughout its massive logistics network. Though the four-day Prime Day event won’t be reflected in the reported numbers — given it was in July (third quarter) — we’re still interested to hear management’s commentary on the event, as it will no doubt play into the guidance the team provides. The combination of Prime Day and the back-to-school season stands to support both consumer demand and ad revenue growth in the third quarter. Analysts expect total revenue of $162.06 billion and earnings per share of $1.32. Linde will be out with results on Friday, before the opening bell. We’re simply looking for more of the consistency we’ve come to know and love from Linde. However, outside of the numbers, it will be interesting to see what management has to say about the various industries the company serves. A commentary on how tariffs are affecting demand from customers will also help better inform our view on various sectors of the economy. Also of interest will be management’s view on the recently announced long-term agreements to supply the U.S. space industry. As for earnings, last time around, management baked in the assumption of economic deterioration and recessionary conditions. Given the resiliency we’ve seen since then and the increased clarity as it relates to tariffs, we’ll look for the team to revise their outlook for the remained of the year. Analysts are looking for earnings of $4.03 on revenue of $8.35 billion. Week ahead Monday, July 28 Before the bell earnings: New Gold (NGD), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS), Bank of Hawaii (BOH), Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) After the bell: Celestica (CLS), Rambus (RMBS), Tilray (TLRY), WM (WM), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Crane (CR), Whirlpool (WHR), Amkor Technology (AMKR), Brixmor Property Group (BRX), Enterprise Financial Services (EFSC), Universal Health Services (UHS), Brown & Brown (BRO), Veralto (VLTO) Tuesday, July 29 FHFA Home Price Index at 9 a.m. ET Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: UnitedHealth (UNH), SoFi (SOFI), PayPal (PYPL), Boeing (BA), United Parcel Service (UPS), Spotify (SPOT), Merck (MRK), Nucor (NUE), AstraZeneca (AZN), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), Procter & Gamble (PG), Carrier Global (CARR), American Tower (AMT), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Polaris (PII), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Stellantis (STLA) After the bell: Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), Visa (V), Marathon Digital (MARA), Booking (BKNG), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Seagate (STX), Teradyne (TER), Penumbra (PEN), PPG Industries (PPG), Republic Services (RSG), Avis Budget (CAR), Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Wednesday, July 30 ADP Employment Survey at 8:15 a.m. ET First look at Q2 U.S. GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET Before the bell: Altria (MO), Vertiv (VRT), Virtu Financial (VIRT), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA), Generac (GNRC), Etsy (ETSY), GE HealthCare (GEHC), Hershey Company (HSY), Humana (HUM), Harley-Davidson (HOG), VF Corp. (VFC), Vita Coco Company (COCO), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) After the bell: Meta Platforms. (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Applied Digital (APLD), Carvana (CVNA), Lam Research (LRCX), Qualcomm (QCOM), Ford Motor (F), Arm Holdings (ARM), Albemarle (ALB), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Allstate (ALL), Brookfield (BN), Western Digital (WDC), eBay (EBAY) Thursday, July 31 Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET Before the bell: CVS Health (CVS), Roblox (RBLX), Cameco (CCJ), Carpenter Technology (CRS), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), AbbVie (ABBV), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) , Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Baxter International (BAX), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Cigna (CI), Canada Goose (GOOS), Mastercard (MA), PG & E (PCG), Shake Shack (SHAK), SiriusXM (SIRI), Southern Company (SO) After the bell: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Reddit (RDDT), Coinbase Global (COIN), Riot Platforms (RIOT), Enovix Corporation (ENVX), Roku (ROKU), Bloom Energy (BE), Cloudflare (NET), Cable ONE (CABO), Innodata (INOD), MasTec (MTZ), AXT (AXTI), Beazer Homes USA (BZH), Eldorado Gold (EGO), Edison International (EIX) Friday, August 1 Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs deadline Nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. ET Before the bell: Linde (LIN), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), CNH Global (CNH), Dominion Energy (D), AES (AES), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), Fulgent Genetics (FLGT), Fluor (FLR), LyondellBasell Industries (LYB), Ocugen (OCGN), T. 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