The uncertainty of the Trump Administration’s ongoing trade talks with China, which have spurred multiple “deadlines,” has fueled airfreight traffic. Global air cargo volumes jumped 5% year-on-year in July, according to Xeneta, as a result of global shippers trying to get their goods into the U.S. before the latest deadline of Aug. 12. This need for speed has also expanded air freight volumes on other trade routes. The China trade deadline was extended in May to next Tuesday. “While this state of tariff flux exists, air cargo gives shippers the opportunity to respond quicker and ‘that’s what they’re playing with,” said Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer of Xeneta. “My best assessment is that the confusion is encouraging more companies to use airfreight than would like to, but air cargo is proving its value once again.” The global trade war has shifted volumes of air freight to other trade lanes. Airfreight is moved by traditional airfreight carriers like FedEx , UPS , and DHL as well as in the belly of passenger planes. The combination of 54% plus tariffs and the de minimis ban on China resulted in Chinese freight moving away from the US to Europe in July. The diminished freight volumes caused spot airfreight rates from Southeast Asia to North America to drop by -16% year-on-year. Airfreight volumes from China to Europe on the other hand, surged by a whopping 90% driven by e-commerce. “China has found another market to move the goods once bound for the US to Europe and Asia Pacific,” said Wenwen Zhang, air freight shipping analyst at Xeneta. “E-commerce airfreight from China to the US was between 40-50% last year. That capacity has now shifted by double digits from China to Europe and Asia Pacific.” Also seen in the data, the influence of the uncertainty surrounding semiconductor tariffs. Airfreight from Taiwan to the U.S. increased in July. Spot rates from Taiwan to North America increased 9% year-on-year. The U.S. announced the chip tariffs late Wednesday, but granted broad exemptions for companies that have U.S. manufacturing plants or plans to build them. Zhang tells CNBC they do not rule out an increase in spot rates from China to the U.S. if China’s tariff deadline is extended and shippers use that time to bring in more product. The trade war with the EU has also fueled air freight across the TransAtlantic trade route. According to Xeneta, the transatlantic market stood out as the only major corridor to post considerable rate increases in both directions. The combination of frontloading and diminished belly capacity from passenger flights stoked rates slightly higher. “This shouldn’t be the case for this time of the year, because normally the summer period is very quiet for the TransAtlantic market,” said Zhang. “But frontloading ahead of the tariffs drove some of this growth.
