Bank of America expects third-quarter investment banking fees to fall more than 10%; shares slide

Bank of America is seeing a far more subdued few months for its Wall Street advisory and trading businesses after a blockbuster second quarter, CEO Brian Moynihan told analysts Monday.

Investment banking fees will likely decline by more than 10% in the third quarter from the year-earlier period, while trading revenue will be roughly flat, Moynihan said at a conference. That compares to a second quarter in which the bank posted a 50% jump in investment banking fees and a 33% jump in trading revenue.

“What we’re seeing is the market generally in investment banking is down 10%,” Moynihan said, citing Dealogic data. “We’re not as well positioned in some of the businesses that have more activity, so we’ll be down probably a bit more than that.”

Bank of America shares were down 5% in afternoon trading Monday following Moynihan’s comments.

The muted outlook from the country’s second-largest bank by assets could be an early signal that Wall Street’s AI-fueled advisory and trading boom might have hit turbulence.

While Moynihan pointed to a robust deal pipeline, particularly in middle-market investment banking, the projected double-digit decline in investment banking may make investors wonder if the industry’s surge in capital markets activity will prove short-lived.

Later Monday, Citigroup CFO Gonzalo Luchetti told analysts that investment banking is tracking for “low-single-digit” revenue growth in the third quarter, while trading was heading for “mid-single-digit” revenue growth.

Those figures could climb if Citigroup’s bankers and traders end the quarter on a strong note, he said.

“September is a key month,” Luchetti said. “These few weeks are very meaningful.”