New Delhi: The Economic Survey 2020-21 is all set to be tabled in the Parliament on Friday (29 January) ahead of the presentation of the Union Budget 2021 on February 1.  

The survey, also regarded as the official report card of the union government, gives a roadmap for the country’s economy and spells the way forward.

During the last economic survey (Economic Survey 2018-19) the government Thursday projected the country’s GDP growth for 2019-20 at 7 percent, up from five-year low of 6.8 per cent, on  the back of anticipated pickup in investment and consumption. However, in the wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic, the course of the Indian economy took a downward slope with the country’s GDP falling to -23.9 percent in the first quarter. 

India’s Q1 (Q1 of 2020- 21) GDP Growth

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation releasing the estimates of GDP for the first quarter (April-June) Q1 of 2020-21, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices said, “GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q1 of 2020-21 is estimated at Rs 26.90 lakh crore, as against Rs 35.35 lakh crore in Q1 of 2019-20, showing a contraction of 23.9 percent as compared to 5.2 percent growth in Q1 2019-20.  Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at Constant (2011-12) Prices for Q1 of 2020-21 is estimated at Rs 25.53 lakh crore, as against Rs 33.08 lakh crore in Q1 of 2019-20, showing a contraction of 22.8 percent”.

India’s Q2 GDP Growth

India’s Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for July-September 2020 slowed down to 7.5 percent. The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation releasing the estimates of GDP for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2020-21, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices said, “GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 of 2020-21 is estimated at ₹ 33.14 lakh crore, as against ₹ 35.84 lakh crore in Q2 of 2019-20, showing a contraction of 7.5 percent as compared to 4.4 percent growth in Q2 2019-20.  Quarterly GVA at Basic Prices at Constant (2011-12) Prices for Q2 of 2020-21 is estimated at ₹30.49 lakh crore, as against ₹ 32.78 lakh crore in Q2 of 2019-20, showing a contraction of 7.0 percent.”

India’s Q2 (Q2 of 2020- 21) GDP Growth

The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter October-December, 2020 (Q3 of 2020- 21) will be on February 26, 2021 with estimates coming that the economy might show some signs of correction.

Expectations from Economic Survey 2020-21

It is being widely expected that the Economic Survey 2020-21 will outline the impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Indian economy and give direction for the path ahead. Economic Survey 2020-21 growth projection for India’s economy will also be keenly watched by analysts and the likes. The growth projection holds the key to the course of economy and outlines the direction of it.

V-shaped recovery stands for vaccine

India’s GDP is within the striking distance of attaining positive growth, the Reserve Bank said observing that the letter “V” in the V-shaped recovery stands for vaccine. The Indian government launched the world’s biggest vaccination drive on January 16 to protect people from COVID-19. “What will 2021 look like? The shape of the recovery will be V-shaped after all and the ‘V’ stands for vaccine,” said an article on the ‘state of economy’ in the RBI’s January Bulletin.

The RBI, however, said the views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the central bank.

India’s GDP is estimated to contract by a record 7.7 per cent during 2020-21 as the COVID-19 pandemic severely hit the key manufacturing and services segments, as per government projections released earlier this month. The article further said that in the first half of 2021-22, GDP growth will benefit from statistical support and is likely to be mostly consumption-driven.

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