Fed meeting live updates: Here's what to watch ahead of Kevin Warsh's first rate decision

We will hopefully get a sense Wednesday of the extent of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s aversion to forward guidance. He’s long criticized it, but never defined how he would correct the problem.

Forward guidance can take two forms — call it soft and hard — and the question is whether Warsh wants to get rid of both.

Soft forward guidance is simply Fed officials saying they expect rates to remain low because, for example, they forecast low inflation and weak growth. If the economic outlook changes, then markets can expect the rate outlook to change.

Proponents, which include many Fed presidents and governors, say markets and the economy benefit from understanding how the central bank will react in a given situation. This allows them to adjust their views on rates along with the data.

Hard forward guidance is a rarer form of communication where the Fed explicitly commits to a rate policy for a period of time, or in a few cases, until specific economic metrics are achieved, like a given unemployment rate. This is used as a tool to increase the impact of Fed policy most especially when the Fed funds rate is at zero. It pulls forward the benefit of a future policy into the present.

It may be that Warsh dislikes both forms, having said forward guidance leads to policy mistakes because it locks Fed officials into following their forecast even when conditions change.

If so, expect less certainty about where the Fed is going and potentially more volatility in markets as investors scramble to game out where the central bank is heading. A clue could come in whether Warsh submits a dot to the so-called dot plot, where Fed officials quarterly project their outlook the funds rate.

—Steve Liesman

Wednesday’s Fed decision and press conference comes during a period of severe economic pessimism for everyday Americans.

The University of Michigan’s closely followed consumer sentiment index regained some ground this month as gas prices eased. But the index is still down more than 19% from a year ago, with consumers citing concerns about inflation.

The index plunged to all-time lows in recent months as the Iran war drove up energy costs. Economists said that the Middle East conflict served as the latest in a series of financial shocks for consumers since the pandemic.

“They feel burdened by the recent escalation in inflation and worry that higher inflation could remain stubborn going forward, particularly in the short run,” said Joanne Hsu, the director of the survey, in a release.

— Alex Harring

Federal Open Market Committee decision days are typically positive for assets, according to Citi, with above-average returns in equities and bonds.

“However, this meeting is uncommon,” Citi said, noting it’s Warsh’s first as chairman.

Meetings involving incoming chairs have tended to be used to establish a chair’s “hawkish bona fides” as a way to reassure investors that taming inflation is a priority, Citi said.

The bank’s analysis finds that the average sell-off in the 2-year Treasury is around 6 basis points during the first meeting led by a new chair. For comparison, the move averages roughly -1.1 basis points when looking at all FOMC meetings.

The 2-year note more closely tracks short-term Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and was trading around 4.072%, up more than 2 basis points at around 11:30 a.m. ET Wednesday. One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

Treasury yields have historically continued to rise over the following 100 trading days after a new chair’s first meeting.

“That said recent falls in oil prices may reduce investor fears of rate hikes and our econ team … believes provides incoming Chair Warsh some scope to surprise dovishly,” Citi said.

Citi’s econ team expects three cuts this year despite market pricing becoming more hawkish in recent months.

— Deena Zaidi

This week’s meeting features something that hasn’t happened in 75 years — current and former Fed chairmen sitting across the table from each other.

Jerome Powell chose to stay on the Board of Governor after his term as chair expired in May while the central bank’s office of inspector general continues a probe into the renovations at Fed headquarters in Washington, D.C. Powell still has nearly two years left on his term and said in late April that he will serve “for a period of time to be determined.”

The last time this happened was when Mariner Eccles left the board in 1951, having served more than two years as governor after his time as chair ran out.

But while new Chairman Kevin Warsh has spoken of the need for “regime change” at the Fed, don’t expect fireworks while he and Powell serve together, according to a former Fed official who served both during Warsh’s initial stint on the board and with Powell.

“Powell’s an awfully good guy,” said Bill English, the Fed’s head of monetary affairs from 2010-15. “I think he is going to try to kind of keep his head down. He’s not going to intentionally be a pain in the neck, and Warsh is pretty good with people and sensible at how to interact. I think they’re going to get along fine, basically by both of them being polite and Powell kind of keeping his head down.”

—Jeff Cox

The White House isn’t ready to abandon its criticisms of the Fed just because Warsh is now chair. Peter Navarro, trade advisor to the president, previewed a line of attack in an appearance Tuesday on former Trump advisor Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast.

“We are going to see whether Jay Powell is going to exercise authority as a shadow chair using people who are frankly of low IQ in a majority and do stupid stuff like raising rates,” Navarro said.

Navarro was echoing a line of criticism by other members of the administration against Powell, who stepped down as chair in May but opted to retain his seat on the Fed’s Board of Governors. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had urged Powell not to stay on the board, saying it would give him undue influence over the Fed and in effect make him a “shadow chair.”

The notion of a shadow chair was a plan Bessent proposed in 2024 to undermine Powell by having the president nominate a successor early. Bessent backed off the idea amid criticism.

“That’s just something I would never do — you know, the ‘shadow chair’ thing,” Powell said in April at his final press conference as chair. He said he didn’t plan to be a “high-profile dissident” and was staying on the board to resolve the Trump administration’s legal threats to the Fed.

— Matt Peterson

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, blamed President Donald Trump ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, accusing him of pressuring the central bank while pursuing policies that she said have driven up costs.

“Donald Trump promised to lower costs ‘on day one.’ He has spent his Presidency trying to illegally take over the Fed in order to lower interest rates,” Warren said in a statement. “But Trump’s own economic agenda has fueled the highest inflation in three years.”

Warren pointed to Trump’s tariffs, the job market and the war with Iran as sources of economic pressure.

“His chaotic tariffs stalled the job market and increased prices, and his war with Iran has driven costs even higher,” Warren said. “Americans deserve lower interest rates and lower costs, but it’s Donald Trump — not the Fed — standing in the way.”

– Luke Fountain

Warsh’s first rate decision as Federal Reserve chairman follows a confirmation fight that became a proxy battle over Trump’s pressure campaign against Jerome Powell and the central bank’s independence.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., briefly blocked Warsh’s path, refusing to advance Trump’s Fed nominees while the Justice Department pursued a criminal probe tied to Powell and the Fed’s headquarters renovation. Tillis called the investigation “bogus,” and his opposition threatened to stall Warsh in the closely divided Banking Committee.

Tillis relented only after the DOJ closed the criminal probe and referred the matter to the Fed’s inspector general.

Warsh won confirmation to the Fed board in a 51-45 vote, then was confirmed chair the next day, 54-45. Only Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., crossed party lines to support him in the chair vote. 

Powell remains on the Fed board until 2028, keeping Warsh’s predecessor inside the institution as the new chair tries to put his stamp on monetary policy.

– Luke Fountain

Warsh’s new colleagues will by tradition greet him cordially and pledge their support as they meet to consider interest rates. But if his intention is a quick rate cut, the new chairman might be entering a hostile work environment. 

An analysis by Deutsche Bank, using a large language model to evaluate every speech by the voters on the Federal Open Market Committee’s since the most recent meeting, in April, found 11 were hawkish, five were neutral, and one can be said to be dovish.

And all but two have grown more hawkish since the May meeting. Hawks prefer higher interest rates, doves lower.

“This pronounced hawkish trend signals the Committee’s re-evaluation of the balance of risks, pointing to increasing risks that rate hikes might be needed,” analysts for Deutsche Bank wrote. 

That analysis could explain why, despite a potential Iran deal and a sharp fall in oil prices, market futures tied to interest rates trade with a 60% probability of a December rate hike.

Among the voters, three presidents of the Fed’s regional reserve banks were rated most hawkish. They are Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed, Lorie Logan of Dallas and Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis.

Governor Jerome Powell, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams came in neutral. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman was the lonesome dove.

But even among the more-neutral group, speeches became more hawkish. 

There is no “obvious kind of direction where we would go in the future,” Williams said in early June.

Warsh spoke positively at his confirmation hearing in April of the potential for artificial intelligence to prompt growth without worsening inflation but didn’t give a detailed analysis of his latest views. His press conference Wednesday will air his thinking for the first time as chairman.

Making an argument to the FOMC may be a challenge, said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan. “When dealing with true experts, Warsh will need to sharpen his case and add specifics,” Feroli said.

Warsh may need to wait for the data to go his way. He can’t quickly change the committee itself. The presidency of the Atlanta Fed is open, but that position doesn’t vote until 2027 under the Fed’s rotation for regional bank presidents. 

Governor Lisa Cook is awaiting a ruling from the Supreme Court on Trump’s attempt last year to fire her.

In 2028, Powell’s term will end, and the regional bank presidencies in New York, Richmond and San Francisco are expected to roll over.

Early retirements are always possible. Fed governors serve 14-year appointments, but in practice the average term is just five years, according to the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution.

— Matt Peterson, Steve Liesman

April’s meeting of the Federal Reserve surprised observers when it yielded four dissents. Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi forecast a more united Fed in its June meeting.

Speculators think there’s a 70% chance there will be zero dissents in the central bank’s interest rate decision set to be released Wednesday. Chances that there are four dissents again are extremely low at just 3%.

Former Fed Governor Stephen Miran was among the dissenters in April, arguing that the Federal Open Market Committee should have lowered rates rather than held them steady.

Regional presidents Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neil Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas also dissented, but not because they disagreed with the decision to hold off on altering rates. Instead, they argued the central bank should have removed its “easing bias,” where the Federal Open Market Committee hinted at future rate cuts.

Read more here.

— Davis Giangiulio

One thing that could be missing from Warsh’s first meeting will be his place on the vaunted “dot plot” of rate expectations.

Fed watchers expect Warsh could pass on inserting his view on the future path of rates from the grid, which is watched closely on Wall Street but has had an uneven track record as a forecasting tool. The dot plot is part of the larger Summary of Economic Projections, which includes views from the 19 Federal Open Market Committee meeting participants on inflation, unemployment and gross domestic product.

Warsh has voiced a strong dislike of such “forward guidance” tools because he feels they hamstring policymakers.

Warsh “could argue that he simply didn’t have enough time to work with the staff to build out a forecast, given that he was only sworn in on May 22. But we think he will be more direct, stating that he doesn’t plan to submit SEP forecasts because he doesn’t believe in forward guidance,” Bank of America economist Adiya Bhave said in a note.

“This could be a ‘win-win”‘ for Warsh — he could undermine the SEP without potentially upsetting the rest of the committee by abolishing it,” Bhave added.

—Jeff Cox

There’s virtually no chance the Federal Reserve will move interest rates when it announces its latest decision Wednesday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch monitor of futures market pricing.

Traders are assigning a zero percent probability to a cut or hike when the Federal Open Market Committee announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET.

In fact, the market is pricing in little chance of any move until the FOMC’s final meeting of the year, on Dec. 8-9, when it is pricing in a 60% probability of a quarter percentage point hike. Since the last committee meeting in April, no FOMC officials have spoken in favor of hikes or cuts, though several have said they worry high inflation could force an increase if it persists.

—Jeff Cox