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Fed’s Evans Says Rates Will Need to Remain at Higher Levels

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Fed’s Evans Says Rates Will Need to Remain at Higher Levels

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The Federal Reserve will need to hold interest rates high enough to slow the economy after it lifts them through the end of this year and into early next year, a central bank official said Monday.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President

Charles Evans

said in remarks at an economics conference Monday that he expects the central bank’s benchmark federal-funds rate will need to rise to slightly more than 4.5% by early next year and then remain at that level for some time.

Mr. Evans said he expects that policy setting, together with the Fed’s continuing program of reducing its $8.8 trillion in asset holdings, will restrict economic growth and soften the labor market.

The Fed has raised the rate at its last three meetings by 0.75 percentage point, most recently last month to a range between 3% and 3.25%.

“Our rapid pace of rate increases has fast-tracked our arrival to such a restrictive stance,” said Mr. Evans before the National Association of Business Economics annual meeting in Chicago. He said the historically quick pace was warranted because interest rates had been too low, but he also signaled concern about the costs of raising rates too much.

“Overshooting is costly, too, and there is great uncertainty about how restrictive policy must actually become,” he said. “This puts a premium on the strategy of getting to a place where policy can plan to rest and evaluate data and developments.”

Mr. Evans said he had grown less optimistic about the potential for more workers to enter the labor market from the sidelines, reducing the prospect that the Fed can reduce pressure on wages without slowing demand with higher interest rates.

Mr. Evans, who is set to retire in January, was a strong advocate last year for waiting to withdraw monetary stimulus due to the view that inflation pressures would fade on their own. Most Fed officials argued for much of last year that prices were rising faster because of supply-chain bottlenecks and other shortages.

But Mr. Evans said Monday that the economy is currently experiencing a “broad-based increase in inflationary pressures that monetary policy must address.” Without higher interest rates to slow spending, hiring and investment, he said, “inflation will come down some, but not to anything near our 2% objective.”

A series of interest-rate rises have rippled through the U.S. economy, and more are projected to be on the way. WSJ breaks down the numbers hitting Americans’ wallets this year and beyond. Photo: Elise Amendola/Associated Press

Write to Nick Timiraos at Nick.Timiraos@wsj.com

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