Chart: A look at the S&P 500's remarkable and defiant trip to a new record
The S&P 500 rose to an all-time intraday on Tuesday, touching 7844.52 and surpassing its August 13 intraday peak when it hit 7,830. The benchmark also closed for the first time over 7,800.
The recovery comes after months of oil shocks, rising borrowing costs and the possible start of a Federal Reserve rate hiking cycle.
The record rally comes just a day after the 10-year Treasury yield rose to fresh 2022 high, hovering around 5.31%. In mid September, the Fed raised its benchmark rate for the first time in over three years and indicated more were to come.
Oil had crossed $100 a barrel in early March for the first time since 2022 as the Iran conflict disrupted energy supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz. After falling below $70 a barrel, it slingshot back above $100 in early September.
“At the end of the day, oil and bond yields can be correlated, but so is the stock market and profits. And if the profits are there, which they have been, the stock market is going to be resilient, even if the economy is a bit more mixed,” Shawn Snyder, economic strategist at Potomac Fund Management, told CNBC.
Unlike prior records this year, this latest run has been narrowly lead by a few stocks tied to the AI hype and deemed unfettered by adverse macroeconomic headwinds.
“When traders take a breather from the noise surrounding them — much of it negative in recent months — and look closer at what’s happening in the markets, it becomes clear the U.S. stock market is the best place to park their money compared with other locations. It’s hard to argue against the mostly positive risk-reward ratio we’ve seen over multiple decades,” said JJ Kinahan, Cboe Global Markets senior vice president of retail and alternative investments.
The so-called Magnificent 7 namely, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Tesla make up more than 34% of the market cap of the S&P 500.
“When you consider that much girth among a small handful of stocks, it’s apparent how much these stocks’ daily movements dictate the direction of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, both of which are in record territory again today,” Kinahan said.
With tech companies investing heavily in data centers and computing infrastructure demand for chips and equipment has gone up. Earlier this year, Amazon said it expected about $200 billion in capital expenditures across its businesses in 2026, citing opportunities including AI, chips and robotics.
Investor appetite for ambitious technology bets also became evident in June, when SpaceX raised $75 billion in the largest IPO ever and began trading on June 12. The debut became another milestone where investors continued backing growth companies despite higher energy prices and borrowing costs.
Looking ahead, however, Potomac Fund Management’s Snyder cautioned that the “weakening” market breadth may last longer if inflation shows no signs of easing, or if there’s no clear signal that the Federal Reserve is achieving its mandate. The central bank is slated to release its minutes from the September meeting on Wednesday.
The market “can look relatively calm, but there are still things going on underneath the surface that may not be so calm,” Snyder said.
