bjp: Assembly elections: BJP breaks cycle in UP; AAPheaval in Punjab | India News – Times of India
On a day when Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal‘s AAP steamrollered its opponents to score a landslide win in Punjab, smashing the stubborn historical barrier that has hitherto restricted regional parties to their home ground, it was the BJP-led Modi that dwarfed the field elsewhere, its pre-eminence stamped starker than ever before.
Thursday’s results mark an emphatic confirmation of BJP’s status as the frontrunner and undercut the narrative that had gained ground, in the aftermath of the Bengal debacle, about Modi’s diminished ability to swing elections other than for the Centre. They also affirm the success of the effort to turn the party into a pro-poor platform with goodwill among large sections of women, as well as of the experiment to use transparent and efficient delivery of welfare schemes to dilute caste identities and subsume them into the larger Hindutva fold.
UP now seems to have been transformed into the second Hindutva laboratory after Gujarat, though the state’s giant size is an obvious point of difference. Home to 80 Lok Sabha seats, it played a significant role in Modi’s back-to back LS majorities and the BJP’s success this time would naturally be reassuring to the party in the long run-up to the 2024 national elections.
While BJP may have lost some seats compared with its overwhelming majority in 2019, it’s worth remembering that this is the first time in 70 years that a CM has returned to office. It bulldozed its way past the SP-RLD combine, which enjoyed the backing of the ‘farmer leaders’. Neither the dissent of voluble local MP Varun Gandhi nor the widely reported anger over the deaths of farmers in Lakhimpur Kheri could prevent it from sweeping the region.
Even BJP’s slightly slimmer returns add up to a rock-solid two-thirds majority. This was achieved despite BSP’s disappearance, which turned the elections into a bipolar fight against SP, virtually guaranteeing Akhilesh Yadav the support of Muslims and Yadavs, who make up 30% of the electorate. In the face of an attempt to revive the ‘upper caste versus OBC’ narrative, BJP succeeded in defying social divisions to raise its vote share.
Uttarakhand marked the first time since the creation of the state 22 years ago that the incumbent has retained office. The tally of 48 seats out of 70 is modest only when contrasted with the massive 57 the party bagged five years ago. It has surpassed the expectations of even hardcore BJP optimists and is tribute to the popularity of Modi, who is synonymous with ambitious development projects in the state and the successful vaccination campaign. It is also testimony to the successful salvage operation by Pushkar Singh Dhami who, ironically, himself lost by a significant margin. Interestingly, five seats in Uttarakhand were decided by margins of less than 1,000 votes.
In both Goa and Manipur, BJP survived anti-incumbency and defied predictions to improve its numbers. The outright win in Manipur is a reaffirmation of BJP’s emergence, in keeping with its growing footprint, as the main political force of the northeast.
In Goa, which the party has won for the third time, it was halted at the midway mark but improved its vote share. CM Pramod Sawant, in his new term, will be only marginally vulnerable to pressure from an ally. That the party convincingly defeated Congress’s determined challenge in Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur should make the victories even sweeter.
Arguably the most grievous blow to Congress was inflicted by AAP in Punjab. Congress-governed territory has shrunk even further, in a manner reminiscent of failing empires besieged by rivals nibbling at their spheres of influence. Its demolition in Punjab puts a big question mark on the party’s claim to be the natural leader of a non-BJP alliance and leaves the Rahul-Priyanka duo vulnerable to challenge from within.
Kejriwal’s success creates complications for other non-NDA satraps also, especially because of Mamata overplaying her hand in Goa. The opposition space, already teeming with ambitions, looks even more crowded with the Delhi CM quickly declaring his intent to be BJP’s principal challenger. This is despite the relegation of Mayawati ‘s BSP from premier political league to block-level player. From being the winner in 2007, who managed to grab 10 Lok Sabha seats even in the tough 2019 election and had a committed following among Jatav Dalits, she has presided over the liquidation of a platform. Holding on to what remains of her base will be a challenge with PM Modi making plain his intent to double down on his effort to win over the poor with welfare schemes.
Akhilesh Yadav’s SP failed to capitalise on BJP’s incumbency despite the fact that the coronavirus pandemic had caused thousands of deaths, a spike in unemployment and put a spoke in Yogi’s development works. One reason was that Akhilesh left it till too late, having been AWOL for almost the first four years of Yogi ‘s tenure. Also, he struggled to erase the widely entrenched perception of pro-Yadav bias, appeasement of Muslims, and indulgence of lawlessness – a failure that frustrated his effort to expand the base beyond the committed MY block. The outsourcing of the task of bringing non-Yadav ‘backwards’ to defectors from BJP did not work, with Modi and Yogi showcasing the distribution of free ration for nearly two years, construction of more than two crore houses, latrines, improved power supply, infrastructure upgrade, superior and tougher law-enforcement as well as a successful vaccination campaign.
The focus on law and order also served the purpose of Hindu consolidation since some of the high-profile ‘bahubalis’ who have borne the brunt of scorched-earth policing happen to be Muslims who appeared to have enjoyed immunity under SP. BJP did not lose Jats to SP despite Akhilesh’s alliance with Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD , as the “bulldozer” plank along with welfare schemes also brought in more women inside the saffron tent. This election has seen them emerging as an independent voting category who would not necessarily take their cues from male members of the family.
It would be tempting for many to attribute the UP win solely to BJP’s ‘majoritarian’ politics, to argue that it was a case of identity and faith trumping ‘real’ concerns like unemployment or kitchen table worries like inflation. Others will attribute it to only the successful implementation of welfare politics. In fact, the performance was made possible by a Hindutva-plus model, an indigenous version of compassionate conservatism. ‘Identity’ considerations were reflected in the construction of Ram Mandir and the Kashi Viswanath project as well as the chart-busting popularity of Kanhaiya Lal Mittal’s “Jo Ram ko layenge, hum unko layenge, UP mein hum ek bar phir bhagwa lahrayenge”, but equally important were the determined interventions to improve the living standards of millions and provide succour at a time of unprecedented distress with an ambitious DBT outreach. As PM Modi said, it would be extended to new geographies. If successfully rolled out, it could further expand BJP’s growing base.
