Global Payments often skirts under the radar but the bargain fintech stock might get a little more attention on Thursday when it releases its third-quarter results due to reports the company is in talks to go private. Such a deal could rank among the largest leveraged buyouts ever, but Wall Street is split on whether it will come to pass. Either way, CNBC continues to see Global Payments stock as a solid value. With a massive free cash flow yield and rock bottom valuation, CNBC had wondered in March whether the company would be targeted since deal-making had picked up in the sector. We also highlighted Global Payments’ turnaround potential following its acquisition of Worldpay, a deal that created the largest U.S. payment processor and expanded its European presence. Since then, shares have soared about 45%. GPN mountain 2026-03-27 Global Payments performance since March 27. The upward move includes a 13% surge on Friday after the Financial Times said that Clayton Dubilier & Rice is partnering with GTCR , Global Payments’ biggest shareholder, to evaluate a deal. The report, which cited people familiar with the matter, said details regarding the scale and funding hadn’t yet emerged as talks were ongoing, and still might not result in a transaction. Prior to the deal speculation, Global Payments stock had been in a multiyear slump as some shareholders had balked at the Worldpay acquisition, and it had attracted the attention of activist Elliott Management. As a stand-alone company, Global Payments stock could appreciate as it integrates Worldpay, expands margins and uses its significant cash flow to buy back shares and delever its balance sheet. Global Payments releases quarterly results on Thursday, and this could be a natural time to announce a deal. Barring an immediate agreement, the company could also confirm whether talks have taken place and provide an update on its operational performance and future outlook. An M & A hotbed The payments space has seen its fair share of deal-making interest recently. Private equity firm Hellman & Friedman was reported in February to be negotiating a takeover of Bill Holdings . Although no agreement materialized, Bill Holdings’ stock is still trading about 40% above preannouncement levels. In July, Stripe and private equity firm Advent International made a cash offer to acquire PayPal at $60.50 a share, a 28% premium to PayPal’s closing stock price before news of the offer broke. PayPal reportedly found the bid to be too low , and Stripe and Advent eventually abandoned their pursuit of the company. PayPal shares are up about 23% since then. Priority Technology agreed to be acquired in a management-led buyout for $8.05 a share in September, a 65% premium to its unaffected stock price. The activity lends credence to a potential Global Payments buyout and helps to set the goal posts on valuation. Deal or no deal? TD Cowen analyst Bryan Bergin said the possibility of a Global Payments LBO seems “plausible” given GTCR’s approximately 16% stake in Global Payments and its “material knowledge” of Worldpay. The private equity group inherited its stake in Global Payments via its 2024 acquisition of a 55% stake in Worldpay . If GTCR rolls its Global Payments shares into the new company, it would reduce the amount of financing needed. Funding the transaction is one of the biggest potential hurdles. “Global Payments’ nearly $22B of net debt (almost 3.7x CY27E EBITDA) could be an impediment, especially in a rising rate environment,” William Blair analyst Andrew Jeffrey wrote in a note to clients. Jeffrey put the odds of deal completion “comfortably below 50%.” However, Deutsche Bank analyst Nate Svensson noted Global Payments’ scale, its free cash flow generation and depressed stock multiple “creates an increasingly compelling value proposition for private capital, particularly if potential bidders are willing to look through the near-term integration period and underwrite the longer-term earnings power of the combined company.” Svensson added that a private structure would allow Global Payments to “prioritize longer-term value creation without the same degree of scrutiny around near-term growth, margins, and capital allocation.” On the downside, he said, “The incremental debt/preferred equity would make it harder to generate the necessary returns and increase execution and de-leveraging risk.” What analysts’ buyout models say Despite such valuation anchors, analysts are split on how much a financial sponsor might pay for the company and what Global Payments and its long-term shareholders might accept. Different growth, cost savings, multiple and margin improvement projections can lead to a range of expectations. Here is a look at what some of Wall Street’s analysts project. Truist estimate: Below $100 a share “Our LBO model suggests that CD & R / GTCR & its co-investors would not pay more than $100 per share for Global Payments if they model to a minimum IRR of +15%,” writes analyst Matthew Coad. William Blair: ~$101 a share BMO: ~$102.86 a share Analyst Andrew Bauch assumes a 20% premium in his model. Raymond James: $110 a share “The willingness of sophisticated financial sponsors to explore acquisitions of scaled payment processors reinforces the potential disconnect between public market valuations and the long-term cash flow generation of these businesses,” analyst Madison Suhr wrote. KeyBanc: At least $115 to $120 a share or more Oppenheimer: $108 to $130 a share Wolfe: ~$120 a share Baird: ~$110 to $130 a share Analyst David Koning’s take-out price range reflects 7.9-8.5 times 2027 estimated EBITDA, which is a similar multiple to the PayPal premium. B. Riley: $84 to $190 a share Analyst Hal Goetsch sees a wide range of outcomes but expects long-term shareholders to push back at the low end of the range. “We believe GPN is materially mispriced,” he said. “If this bid is credible, we think the final price would be significantly above current prices.” What to watch next Ultimately, $105 to $110 a share might be the sweet spot of the range that provides enough premium to appease shareholders such as Elliott Management but isn’t too high to saddle the new company with unsustainable debt. On Tuesday, Global Payments disclosed it amended its bylaws making the Georgia State-wide Business Court its exclusive forum for internal entity claims, a tactical governance shift that simplifies the legal battlefield ahead of any potential deal by eliminating local forum shopping for shareholder suits. Absent a deal, Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette said investors should look to Thursday’s earnings report for improvement in its Middle East market, which has been under pressure; the impact from the removal of the European de minimis tax, and for “healthy underlying demand trends.” Ahead of the results, Wolfe Research analyst Darrin Peller raised his price target to $120 from $113 per share, citing the company’s progress with its Genius point-of-sale product, which consolidated 16 legacy POS brands onto a single platform. “We remain constructive on GPN’s standalone investment thesis,” he wrote.
