The Song of the Summer Could Be Harry Styles, Jack Harlow, or Even Something From 2020

The industry is hoping new releases from

Harry Styles,

Kendrick Lamar,

Lizzo

and

Jack Harlow

will buck pandemic trends that have largely centered around nostalgia and comfort listening.

“Here we are in mid- to late May and we’re finally at a point where we’re getting new music,” says

Gary Trust,

who oversees the industry-standard Billboard charts. This is the first month this year that the majority of the top 10 songs on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart are new releases. Before that, five or more of the songs in the top 10 were released in 2020 or 2021. “New songs just weren’t cutting through,” he says.

Take “Heat Waves,” the psychedelic pop sleeper hit from English alt group Glass Animals. The song has reached its peak on the charts nearly two years after its June 2020 release. Its popularity is in part thanks to it spawning a TikTok trend.

The single broke a record for the longest trip to No. 1 in Hot 100 history when it dethroned “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from the “Encanto” soundtrack. “Bruno,” a holdover from 2021, had been in the top slot for five weeks.

The Hot 100 ranks popularity based on sales—a relatively minor factor—streams and radio airplay. It can take a while to rise on the singles chart for songs that stream well but aren’t radio hits, or vice versa.

“Bruno” sat atop the streaming chart for many months before dominating the Hot 100. “At first radio didn’t touch it. Radio didn’t know what to do with a song like that,” says Mr. Trust. “It really isn’t until songs become huge streaming and radio hits together that they can maximize chart position.”

The effect that strong hit songs have is indicative of how the world is listening to music, says

Lanre Gaba,

co-president of Black music at Atlantic Records, which has released new music from Mr. Harlow and Lizzo topping the Hot 100 this month. “Once you have those, they don’t go away,” she says. “We’re finally seeing a turnover with a new wave of some bigger artists coming back with bigger songs.”

The success of Mr. Harlow’s “First Class,” which has held the No. 1 spot for the past three weeks, reflects the value of artist development, says Ms. Gaba, pointing out that the rapper has been releasing music and building a fan base for nearly a decade.

Even “First Class” evokes nostalgia, as it samples a catchy hook from Fergie’s 2007 hit single “Glamorous.”

But top hits are having less reach.

Lil Nas X’s

“Old Town Road” became the most streamed song of 2019 by raking in more than one billion on-demand audio streams—a milestone no other song has managed to achieve, according to Luminate Data, formerly Nielsen Music. The top single in 2020,

Roddy Ricch’s

“The Box,” garnered 920 million on-demand audio streams;

Dua Lipa’s

“Levitating” hit 627 million in 2021.

That is in part because more people are becoming comfortable with streaming, says Mr. Trust, pointing out that early adopters who were mainly hip-hop and pop fans have been joined in recent years by rock, country and Latin listeners. Older demographics are increasingly streaming their music as well, with 96% of Gen X and 89% of Boomers reporting they used a streaming service to listen to music last year, according to Luminate. The influx of different musical taste and consumption behavior dilutes the impact of the biggest hits.

“It’s hard for any one song or one sound to dominate streaming like it used to be,” says Mr. Trust. The monoculture of decades past, where everyone looked to top 40 radio and MTV, has given way to more democratized, niche listening habits allowed for by streaming. There are fewer consensus hits, says Mr. Trust.

In 2018, the top 200 songs were responsible for nearly one in 10 of all streams; in 2021, that metric fell to less than 1 in 20, according to Luminate. Last year, 95,000 songs hit one million streams, a 36% increase over 2018.

“We’re seeing a broader range of songs reach their full consumption potential,” says Luminate Chief Executive

Rob Jonas.

The pandemic also exacerbated the trend of older music out-streaming newer music. Last year, streaming of current music declined for the first time. The share of catalog music—titles more than 18 months old—increased 5% to account for 70% of listening, according to Luminate. A combination of older streamers tuning in, younger listeners discovering decades-old hits through the explosion of social-video platforms like TikTok, and listeners turning to familiar tunes for comfort during the pandemic lockdowns all led to a rise in such nostalgia listening.

The trend has continued so far into 2022, with streaming of current titles down 3.5%.

“There are pieces of music originally released years—and in some cases decades ago—reaching new commercial peaks,” says Mr. Jonas. “The music industry and music fans’ understanding of what quantifies a hit song is evolving.”

Corrections & Amplifications
Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road” became the most streamed song of 2019, according to Luminate Data, formerly Nielsen Music. An earlier version of this article misspelled Nielsen Music as Nielson Music. (Corrected on May 28.)

Write to Anne Steele at Anne.Steele@wsj.com